Will the Supreme Court hear a 3rd Amendment case before Trump's term ends?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:00 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yes (8.0%). The market has $9K in volume and closes on Sat, 20 Jan 2029.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $9K
- Liquidity: $9K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
If the Supreme Court grants a writ of certiorari to any 3rd Amendment case before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. The case must meet the following requirements: (1) The petition for certiorari explicitly raises a claim or question under the Third Amendment to the United States Constitution as a question presented; OR (2) The lower court decision being appealed explicitly addressed a Third Amendment claim on the merits; OR (3) The Supreme Court's order granting certiorari explicitly identifies a Third Amendment issue as a question for review. For the avoidance of doubt: A case where the Third Amendment is mentioned only in passing, in dicta, or as part of a general constitutional analysis without being a distinct claim SHALL NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion A case where the Third Amendment is raised only in amicus briefs but not by the parties SHALL NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion. Examples that WOULD resolve to Yes: the Court grants cert in a case where a homeowner challenges military housing requirements under the Third Amendment; the Court grants cert in a case where the question presented is "Whether police officers qualify as 'soldiers' under the Third Amendment”; the Court grants cert where a lower court ruled on the scope of Third Amendment protections and that ruling is being appealed.
Sources
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