Where will Republicans win state legislative supermajorities this year?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:26 UTC, Kalshi traders price Florida House (98.0%), Texas Senate (98.0%), New Hampshire Senate (98.0%). The market has $4K in volume and closes on Mon, 01 Feb 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida House | 98.0% | 98.0¢ | 2.0¢ |
| Texas Senate | 98.0% | 98.0¢ | 2.0¢ |
| New Hampshire Senate | 98.0% | 98.0¢ | 2.0¢ |
| Utah Senate | 89.0% | 89.0¢ | 11.0¢ |
| Missouri House | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| Idaho Senate | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| Montana Senate | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| Arizona House | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| Arizona Senate | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| Georgia Senate | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| Iowa House | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| Iowa Senate | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| Missouri Senate | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| North Carolina Senate | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| Wisconsin Senate | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $4K
- Liquidity: $4K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Florida House:
If the number of Florida House of Representatives seats held by Republicans is at least 80 after the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Each market counts the seats in that chamber held by the Republican Party when the chamber's November 3, 2026 general election results are certified. Every seat on the 2026 ballot is attributed to its certified winner, and every other seat to the party designation the state election authority recorded for the winner of that seat's most recent general or special election, regardless of any vacancy, appointment or party change since that election. The number shown is that state's constitutional requirement to override a governor's veto, applied to the chamber's full membership, including where the state measures it against members present and voting. Vacancies, appointments and party changes after certification, and special elections held after November 3, 2026, are disregarded. A winner counts as Republican if the official results show the winner on the Republican Party's ballot line or, where they show a combined designation, list Republican first; a winner elected only on another party's line does not count.
Sources
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