Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:57 UTC, Kalshi traders price Claude (21.0%), Gemini (15.0%), ChatGPT (7.0%). The market has $208K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude | 21.0% | 21.0¢ | 79.0¢ |
| Gemini | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| ChatGPT | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Grok | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Ernie | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Kimi | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Qwen | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Other | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $208K
- Liquidity: $208K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Claude:
If a model by Anthropic is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Sources
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