Where will Waymo operate this year?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 04:59:41 UTC, Kalshi traders price San Diego, CA (100.0%), Tampa, FL (100.0%), Denver, CO (96.0%). The market has $449K in volume and closes on Fri, 08 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego, CA | 100.0% | 100.0¢ | 0.0¢ |
| Tampa, FL | 100.0% | 100.0¢ | 0.0¢ |
| Denver, CO | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| Las Vegas, NV | 90.0% | 90.0¢ | 10.0¢ |
| Sacramento, CA | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| Detroit, MI | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| Charlotte, NC | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| New Orleans, LA | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| Philadelphia, PA | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| London, UK | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Chicago, IL | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Baltimore, MD | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Portland, OR | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| New York, NY | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Tokyo, Japan | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $449K
- Liquidity: $449K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for San Diego, CA:
If Waymo is operating commercial autonomous vehicle ride-hailing services available to the general public within San Diego, CA before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. "Operating commercial services" means that members of the general public can download the Waymo app (or access Waymo through a partner app), request a ride with pickup and dropoff locations within San Diego, CA, and receive autonomous vehicle service for a fee. The service must be available to the general public without requiring special invitation codes, waitlist approval, or participation in testing programs, though geographic coverage within San Diego, CA may be limited to certain areas. Services operating exclusively with safety drivers present do not satisfy the Payout Criterion; the service must offer fully autonomous rides (without a human safety driver) at least some of the time. Examples that WOULD resolve to Yes: Waymo launches public commercial service in any part of San Diego, CA Waymo expands from adjacent areas into San Diego, CA limits Waymo operates 24/7 service or limited hours service within San Diego, CA Waymo offers service through the Uber app to all users in San Diego, CA Service is geofenced to only certain neighborhoods but is public Examples that would resolve to No: Waymo only operates employee shuttles or closed testing in San Diego, CA Waymo only has an office or maintenance facility in San Diego, CA All Waymo vehicles in San Diego, CA have safety drivers Waymo is…
Sources
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