Which AI companies will have a Pareto efficient model at the end of 2026?

As of Tue, 27 Oct 2026 11:33:25 UTC, Kalshi traders price Moonshot AI (99.0%), OpenAI (84.0%), Anthropic (80.0%). The market has $10K in volume and closes on Thu, 31 Dec 2026.

Updated: Tue, 27 Oct 2026 11:33:25 UTC

Current odds

Market details

• Venue: Kalshi
• Volume: $10K
• Liquidity: $10K
• Closes: Thu, 31 Dec 2026

Resolution rules

Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Moonshot AI:

If Moonshot AI (listed by Artificial Analysis as Kimi) has a model on the Pareto frontier of Artificial Analysis's Intelligence Index vs. Cost per Intelligence Index Task chart on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolves at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2026, using the chart on artificialanalysis.ai with the Pareto line shown. A model counts for the creator Artificial Analysis lists for it. A model is on the frontier if the chart's Pareto line passes through it: no other plotted model has an Intelligence Index at least as high and a Cost per Task at least as low, both unrounded, with one of the two strictly better; models with identical values are both on it. A model without a positive Cost per Task is not plotted and cannot be on the frontier.

Sources

• Source: Kalshi market

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