Best AI at the end of 2026?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 08:48:47 UTC, Kalshi traders price Claude (52.1%), Gemini (37.5%), ChatGPT (8.7%). The market has $11.2M in volume and closes on Thu, 31 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude | 52.1% | 52.1¢ | 47.9¢ |
| Gemini | 37.5% | 37.5¢ | 62.5¢ |
| ChatGPT | 8.7% | 8.7¢ | 91.3¢ |
| Grok | 2.6% | 2.6¢ | 97.4¢ |
| Muse | 1.5% | 1.5¢ | 98.5¢ |
| Kimi | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Qwen | 0.5% | 0.5¢ | 99.5¢ |
| Ernie | 0.1% | 0.1¢ | 99.9¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $11.2M
- Liquidity: $13.5M
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Claude:
If Anthropic has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.
Sources
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