Which AI company will have the best coding model at the end of 2026?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 05:18:25 UTC, Kalshi traders price Anthropic (75.0%), OpenAI (16.0%), Google (8.0%). The market has $1.2M in volume and closes on Thu, 31 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 75.0% | 75.0¢ | 25.0¢ |
| OpenAI | 16.0% | 16.0¢ | 84.0¢ |
| 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ | |
| xAI | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| DeepSeek | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Alibaba | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Baidu | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Moonshot AI | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Z.ai | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $1.2M
- Liquidity: $1.2M
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Anthropic:
If Anthropic has the top-ranked model on LiveBench.ai ranked by "Coding Average" on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Sources
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