Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 06:19:45 UTC, Kalshi traders price OpenAI (17.0%), xAI (10.0%), Meta (6.0%). The market has $1.2M in volume and closes on Sat, 02 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI | 17.0% | 17.0¢ | 83.0¢ |
| xAI | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| Meta | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Z.ai | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Mistral | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Alibaba | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Moonshot AI | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Baidu | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| ByteDance | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Deepseek | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| 01A1 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Nvidia | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $1.2M
- Liquidity: $1.2M
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for OpenAI:
If OpenAI has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Sources
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