Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:57 UTC, Kalshi traders price United States (56.0%), China (31.0%), Russia (2.0%). The market has $185K in volume and closes on Wed, 01 Jan 2031.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 56.0% | 56.0¢ | 44.0¢ |
| China | 31.0% | 31.0¢ | 69.0¢ |
| Russia | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| India | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| European Space Agency | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $185K
- Liquidity: $185K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for United States:
If United States is the first country to launch a manned mission to the Moon before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes. If Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) or another US-based company launches a manned mission to the Moon first then the market resolves to Yes for the United States.
Sources
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