Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 06:02:43 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 20, 2029 (21.0%), Before Jan 1, 2028 (15.0%), Before Jan 1, 2027 (4.3%). The market has $40.7M in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 21.0% | 21.0¢ | 79.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 4.3% | 4.3¢ | 95.7¢ |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Prices on other venues
| Outcome | Venue | Chance | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | Polymarket | 4.3% | |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | Opinion | 19.4% |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $40.7M
- Liquidity: $40.7M
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 20, 2029:
If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President's Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP.
Sources
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