Will there be a year without polio before 2030?
As of Sun, 04 Oct 2026 18:59:08 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yes (5.0%). The market has $43K in volume and closes on Tue, 01 Jan 2030.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $43K
- Liquidity: $43K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
If there is any year between 2024 and 2029 in which there are zero reported wild cases of poliovirus 1, then the market resolves to Yes.
Sources
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