How many launches will SpaceX have this year?
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 15:47:21 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 120 (98.0%), Above 140 (78.0%), Above 160 (10.0%). The market has $413K in volume and closes on Thu, 31 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 120 | 98.0% | 98.0¢ | 2.0¢ |
| Above 140 | 78.0% | 78.0¢ | 22.0¢ |
| Above 160 | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| Above 170 | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Above 190 | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Above 180 | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Above 200 | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Above 210 | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $413K
- Liquidity: $413K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 120:
If SpaceX has more than 120 launches in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If source agency data from FAA is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b.
Sources
Related markets
- How many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- How many launches will SpaceX have in October?
- Tesla Optimus released this year?
- SpaceX Starship 14th launch?
- When will any company achieve AGI?
- Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.