When will any company achieve AGI?
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 22:29:02 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 1, 2030 (82.0%), Before Jan 1, 2031 (78.0%), Before Jan 1, 2029 (78.0%). The market has $260K in volume and closes on Wed, 01 Jan 2031.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2030 | 82.0% | 82.0¢ | 18.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2031 | 78.0% | 78.0¢ | 22.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 78.0% | 78.0¢ | 22.0¢ |
| Before Oct 1, 2028 | 76.0% | 76.0¢ | 24.0¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2028 | 74.0% | 74.0¢ | 26.0¢ |
| Before Apr 1, 2028 | 57.0% | 57.0¢ | 43.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 53.0% | 53.0¢ | 47.0¢ |
| Before Oct 1, 2027 | 42.0% | 42.0¢ | 58.0¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 29.0% | 29.0¢ | 71.0¢ |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 18.0% | 18.0¢ | 82.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2026 | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $260K
- Liquidity: $260K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 1, 2030:
If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. To qualify, the announcement must explicitly state that the company has achieved, attained, reached, or developed Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), or that it has achieved, attained, reached, or developed “AGI.” Statements that describe “AGI-like,” “AGI-level,” “near-AGI,” or “toward AGI” systems without explicitly stating that the company has achieved/attained/reached/developed AGI do not qualify. For purposes of this market, a “company” includes any publicly traded company or any privately held company whose existence and corporate identity is verifiable and whose financing/valuation or corporate profile is covered by at least two of the listed major business news sources.
Sources
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