Will the FDA approve retatrutide?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:57 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 1, 2029 (90.0%), Before Jul 1, 2028 (85.0%), Before Jan 1, 2028 (71.0%). The market has $69K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 90.0% | 90.0¢ | 10.0¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2028 | 85.0% | 85.0¢ | 15.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 71.0% | 71.0¢ | 29.0¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 18.0% | 18.0¢ | 82.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $69K
- Liquidity: $69K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 1, 2029:
If the FDA approves retatrutide (LY3437943) for marketing before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. An approval is defined as: For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA) For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application The following constitute approvals that trigger the Payout Criterion: Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit) Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints) Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs The following do NOT constitute approvals: Complete Response Letters (CRLs) indicating the application cannot be approved in its current form Approvable letters that require additional actions before approval Tentative approvals pending patent or exclusivity expiration FDA requests for additional information or studies Extension of Prescription Drug User Fee Amendments dates Approval for compassionate use or expanded access programs only Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) without full approval Approval only for export or for use outside the United States If the FDA issu…
Sources
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