How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 10:15:42 UTC, Polymarket traders price <5 (52.0%), 5-6 (42.5%), 7-8 (1.1%). The market has $405K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| <5 | 52.0% | 52.0¢ | 48.0¢ |
| 5-6 | 42.5% | 42.5¢ | 57.5¢ |
| 7-8 | 1.1% | 1.1¢ | 98.9¢ |
| 9-10 | 0.6% | 0.6¢ | 99.4¢ |
| >16 | 0.4% | 0.4¢ | 99.6¢ |
| 11-12 | 0.1% | 0.1¢ | 99.9¢ |
| 15-16 | 0.1% | 0.1¢ | 100.0¢ |
| 13-14 | 0.1% | 0.1¢ | 100.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $405K
- Liquidity: $13K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources
Related markets
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- 5kt meteor strike in 2026?
- Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
- Human moon landing in 2026?
- Richest person on December 31, 2026?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.