How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:49:12 UTC, Polymarket traders price 1250+ (92.0%), 1200–1249 (6.7%), 1100–1149 (1.8%). The market has $81K in volume and closes on Mon, 11 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1250+ | 92.0% | 92.0¢ | 8.0¢ |
| 1200–1249 | 6.7% | 6.7¢ | 93.3¢ |
| 1100–1149 | 1.8% | 1.8¢ | 98.3¢ |
| 1150–1199 | 1.1% | 1.1¢ | 98.9¢ |
| 1000–1049 | 0.4% | 0.4¢ | 99.6¢ |
| 1050–1099 | 0.2% | 0.2¢ | 99.8¢ |
| <950 | 0.1% | 0.1¢ | 99.9¢ |
| 950–999 | 0.1% | 0.1¢ | 99.9¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $81K
- Liquidity: $12K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series). Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count. As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time. If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments. The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a c…
Sources
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