How low will Lake Powell drop?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 17:47:28 UTC, Polymarket traders price Above 3,510 ft (79.5%), 3,500–3,510 ft (15.5%), 3,490–3,500 ft (0.3%). The market has $3K in volume and closes on Fri, 16 Apr 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3,510 ft | 79.5% | 79.5¢ | 20.5¢ |
| 3,500–3,510 ft | 15.5% | 15.5¢ | 84.5¢ |
| 3,490–3,500 ft | 0.3% | 0.3¢ | 99.8¢ |
| Below 3,490 ft | 0.2% | 0.2¢ | 99.8¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $3K
- Liquidity: $4K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 3,510 ft:
This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 does not fall below 3,510.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No." Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window. The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Powell at Glen Canyon Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/2362/item/508. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakepowell.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by t…
Sources
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