Peak Severe Drought in Minas Gerais during the Coffee Growing Season?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:24:03 UTC, Polymarket traders price 20% to 39.99% (38.5%), 5% to 19.99% (34.0%), 40% to 59.99% (27.0%). The market has $13K in volume and closes on Sat, 01 May 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20% to 39.99% | 38.5% | 38.5¢ | 61.5¢ |
| 5% to 19.99% | 34.0% | 34.0¢ | 66.0¢ |
| 40% to 59.99% | 27.0% | 27.0¢ | 73.0¢ |
| 60% or more | 11.5% | 11.5¢ | 88.5¢ |
| Under 5% | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $13K
- Liquidity: $3K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market resolves based on the highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage recorded for the state of Minas Gerais across the 2026/27 coffee growing season. For the purpose of this market, the "2026/27 coffee growing season" is defined as the six-month window (September 2026 through February 2027) which corresponds to the flowering and bean-development period for arabica coffee in Minas Gerais. This is the crop-development period for the coffee harvested in 2027, and is distinct from the 2026 harvest (typically May–September 2026) and the subsequent shipping and marketing period for that crop. This label is descriptive only; resolution depends solely on the calendar months stated above. For each month in the window, the S2+ drought area percentage is the percentage of the total area of the state of Minas Gerais classified at S2 (Seca Grave) or a more severe category. This is the value shown in the "S2–S4" column of ANA's "Área Acumulada" (accumulated area) tabular view for Minas Gerais, in the official tabular data published by the Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA). The "peak" is the single highest monthly S2+ drought area percentage across the six months as published by ANA. This market will resolve once ANA has published an S2–S4 "Área Acumulada" figure for Minas Gerais for all six reference months, or at 11:59 PM ET on April 29, 2027 (60 calendar days after the end of February 2027), whichever occurs first. The resolving value is the highest monthly…
Sources
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