How low will Lake Mead drop?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:24:15 UTC, Polymarket traders price 1,028–1,033 ft (49.0%), Below 1,028 ft (31.0%), 1,033–1,038 ft (15.2%). The market has $23K in volume and closes on Thu, 15 Apr 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1,028–1,033 ft | 49.0% | 49.0¢ | 51.0¢ |
| Below 1,028 ft | 31.0% | 31.0¢ | 69.0¢ |
| 1,033–1,038 ft | 15.2% | 15.2¢ | 84.9¢ |
| Above 1,038 ft | 5.7% | 5.7¢ | 94.3¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $23K
- Liquidity: $996
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for 1,028–1,033 ft:
This market resolves "Yes" if the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027 falls below 1,033.00 feet but does not fall below 1,028.00 feet. Otherwise, this market resolves "No." Resolution is determined by the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Mead (Hoover Dam, USBR site) between market creation and March 31, 2027. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window. The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/4370/item/6123. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakemead.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correct…
Sources
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