How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:49:07 UTC, Polymarket traders price 1 (52.5%), 0 (30.0%), 3 (9.9%). The market has $1.2M in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52.5% | 52.5¢ | 47.5¢ |
| 0 | 30.0% | 30.0¢ | 70.0¢ |
| 3 | 9.9% | 9.9¢ | 90.1¢ |
| 2 | 6.8% | 6.8¢ | 93.3¢ |
| 5+ | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1¢ | 99.9¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $1.2M
- Liquidity: $8K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus. Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Sources
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