How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 10:32:40 UTC, Polymarket traders price 14–16 (62.0%), 17–19 (18.5%), 11–13 (16.0%). The market has $364K in volume and closes on Fri, 08 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14–16 | 62.0% | 62.0¢ | 38.0¢ |
| 17–19 | 18.5% | 18.5¢ | 81.5¢ |
| 11–13 | 16.0% | 16.0¢ | 84.0¢ |
| 20+ | 1.3% | 1.3¢ | 98.7¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $364K
- Liquidity: $2K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Sources
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