Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 09:42:22 UTC, Polymarket traders price SpaceX (70.5%), xAI (25.5%), Anthropic (25.5%). The market has $2.6M in volume and closes on Sat, 02 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX | 70.5% | 70.5¢ | 29.5¢ |
| xAI | 25.5% | 25.5¢ | 74.5¢ |
| Anthropic | 25.5% | 25.5¢ | 74.5¢ |
| OpenAI | 0.4% | 0.4¢ | 99.6¢ |
| Databricks | 0.1% | 0.1¢ | 100.0¢ |
| SHEIN | 0.1% | 0.1¢ | 100.0¢ |
| Waymo | 0.1% | 0.1¢ | 100.0¢ |
| Discord | 0.1% | 0.1¢ | 100.0¢ |
| Perplexity AI | 0.1% | 0.1¢ | 100.0¢ |
| Kraken | 0.1% | 0.1¢ | 100.0¢ |
| Revolut | 0.1% | 0.1¢ | 100.0¢ |
| Stripe | 0.1% | 0.1¢ | 100.0¢ |
| ByteDance | 0.1% | 0.1¢ | 100.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $2.6M
- Liquidity: $571K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used. A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is al…
Sources
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