How many people will Neuralink have implanted this year?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 13:48:49 UTC, Kalshi traders price At least 25 (91.0%), At least 30 (70.0%), At least 40 (36.0%). The market has $16K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 25 | 91.0% | 91.0¢ | 9.0¢ |
| At least 30 | 70.0% | 70.0¢ | 30.0¢ |
| At least 40 | 36.0% | 36.0¢ | 64.0¢ |
| At least 50 | 24.0% | 24.0¢ | 76.0¢ |
| At least 75 | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
| At least 100 | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $16K
- Liquidity: $16K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for At least 25:
If at least 25 persons have received Neuralink brain-computer interface implants before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Only unique human individuals count toward the total, regardless of how many devices each person receives. If one person receives multiple implants or device replacements, they count as one person. Cumulative totals include all persons who have ever received a Neuralink implant, including those who may have had devices removed, experienced device failure, or are deceased. Only successful implantations count; attempted implantations that are aborted during surgery (and thus not actually implanted) do not count. The implantations need not occur after Issuance to count toward 25. For the purposes of this contract, Neuralink brain-computer interface implants include the following: The N1 chip system and any successor devices developed by Neuralink Devices surgically implanted in the brain or nervous system designed to record neural activity and/or stimulate neural tissue Both fully functional and partially functional implanted devices Devices implanted for medical treatment, research, or enhancement purposes The following do NOT count as Neuralink implants: External devices, headsets, or non-implanted brain-computer interfaces Devices developed by other companies, even if similar in function Neuralink devices implanted in animals Theoretical, planned, or projected implant numbers without confirmation of actual procedures If Neuralink merge…
Sources
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