How many SpaceX Starship launches will reach space this year?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:57 UTC, Kalshi traders price 5.0 (50.0%), 4.0 (40.0%), 3.0 (6.0%). The market has $68K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| 4.0 | 40.0% | 40.0¢ | 60.0¢ |
| 3.0 | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| 1 or below | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| 2.0 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| 6.0 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| 8.0 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| 9.0 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| 10 or above | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| 7.0 | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $68K
- Liquidity: $68K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for 1 or below:
If below 2 Starship launches reach Space in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. A Starship will be considered to have reached space if its maximum altitude is at least 62 miles above sea level at any point during its flight. Each launch is considered separate and will contribute to count separately, even if the same Starship is launched multiple times. (For example, if in period the same Starship is launched twice and reaches space twice, count will be 2).
Sources
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