AI capability growth this year?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:57 UTC, Kalshi traders price At least 1530 score (100.0%), At least 1520 score (100.0%), At least 1540 score (59.0%). The market has $408K in volume and closes on Sat, 02 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 1530 score | 100.0% | 100.0¢ | 0.0¢ |
| At least 1520 score | 100.0% | 100.0¢ | 0.0¢ |
| At least 1540 score | 59.0% | 59.0¢ | 41.0¢ |
| At least 1550 score | 33.0% | 33.0¢ | 67.0¢ |
| At least 1600 score | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| At least 1650 score | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| At least 1750 score | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| At least 1700 score | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $408K
- Liquidity: $408K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for At least 1530 score:
If an AI model has a score of at least 1530 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
Sources
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