Best LLM at the end of the decade?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:57 UTC, Kalshi traders price Google (24.0%), Anthropic (16.0%), OpenAI (14.0%). The market has $3K in volume and closes on Mon, 07 Jan 2030.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24.0% | 24.0¢ | 76.0¢ | |
| Anthropic | 16.0% | 16.0¢ | 84.0¢ |
| OpenAI | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| Tencent | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| Z AI | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| Moonshot | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| Xiaomi | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| xAI | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| DeepSeek | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| MiniMax | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Mistral | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Essential AI | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| NVIDIA | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Alibaba | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Microsoft | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $3K
- Liquidity: $3K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Google:
If Google has the highest-ranked AI model on the applicable index at 10:00 AM ET on Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. The Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index is used first, followed by Epoch AI's General ECI and LiveBench Overall under the fallback rules. The default leaderboard is used, excluding preliminary or provisional scores. Only the ranking at the stated time counts; leading earlier does not. Ties follow the contract's tiebreakers. If the top model's organization is not listed, every market resolves No.
Sources
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