Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 02:43:58 UTC, Kalshi traders price Democrats, 8 to 10% (27.0%), Democrats, 10 to 12% (21.0%), Democrats, 6 to 8% (20.0%). The market has $2.8M in volume and closes on Wed, 03 Nov 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats, 8 to 10% | 27.0% | 27.0¢ | 73.0¢ |
| Democrats, 10 to 12% | 21.0% | 21.0¢ | 79.0¢ |
| Democrats, 6 to 8% | 20.0% | 20.0¢ | 80.0¢ |
| Democrats, 12 to 14% | 9.1% | 9.1¢ | 90.9¢ |
| Democrats, 4 to 6% | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| Republicans win | 5.1% | 5.1¢ | 94.9¢ |
| Democrats, 14 to 16% | 3.4% | 3.4¢ | 96.6¢ |
| Democrats, 2 to 4% | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Democrats, 16% and above | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Democrats, 0 to 2% | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $2.8M
- Liquidity: $2.8M
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Democrats, 8 to 10%:
If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 8 and 10 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election. The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
Sources
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