2026: Trump's bad year?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 12:03:07 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yes (5.7%). The market has $272K in volume and closes on Fri, 31 Dec 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5.7% | 5.7¢ | 94.3¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $272K
- Liquidity: $272K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
If ALL of the following occur: Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35% in 2026 AND Democrats win control of the House of Representatives after the midterms AND the U.S. enters a recession between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) is at least 5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: "Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35%" uses POLLINGAPPROVALINPERIOD "Will Democrats win control of the House of Representatives?" uses CONTROL "Will the U.S. enter a recession?" uses NBERRECSS "Will the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) be at least 5%?" uses ECONSTAT For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified). All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period. Additional specifications: POLLINGAPPROVALINPERIOD - the threshold need only be met once during the period CONTROL - based on the Speaker of the House on Feb 1, 2027 NBERRECSS - requires two consecutive quarters in which the most recent estimates of seasonally adjusted annualized percent changes of quarterly US real GDP are negative
Sources
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