Closest Governor race this year?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:54 UTC, Kalshi traders price Georgia (18.0%), Ohio (12.0%), Nevada (9.0%). The market has $123K in volume and closes on Wed, 20 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 18.0% | 18.0¢ | 82.0¢ |
| Ohio | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| Nevada | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| Texas | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| Kansas | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Florida | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Wisconsin | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Alaska | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Oregon | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Vermont | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Iowa | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Nebraska | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Michigan | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Oklahoma | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| South Carolina | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $123K
- Liquidity: $123K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Georgia:
If Georgia has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For yes/no referenda, it's the absolute difference between yes and no percentages. If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No.
Sources
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