Texas Senate: margin of victory
As of Mon, 26 Oct 2026 10:46:45 UTC, Kalshi traders price James Talarico, 0-2% (19.0%), James Talarico, 4-6% (17.0%), Ken Paxton, 0-2% (17.0%). The market has $19K in volume and closes on Wed, 03 Nov 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Talarico, 0-2% | 19.0% | 19.0¢ | 81.0¢ |
| James Talarico, 4-6% | 17.0% | 17.0¢ | 83.0¢ |
| Ken Paxton, 0-2% | 17.0% | 17.0¢ | 83.0¢ |
| James Talarico, 2-4% | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| Ken Paxton, 2-4% | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
| James Talarico, 6-8% | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
| Ken Paxton, 4-6% | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| James Talarico, ≥8% | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Ken Paxton, 6-8% | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Ken Paxton, ≥8% | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $19K
- Liquidity: $19K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for James Talarico, 0-2%:
If the margin of victory for James Talarico in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas is within 0% to 2%, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the vote share received by James Talarico minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind James Talarico if James Talarico wins, or the candidate that finishes first if James Talarico loses. If James Talarico wins, the margin will be positive; if James Talarico loses, the margin will be negative; if James Talarico ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If James Talarico runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.
Sources
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