Blue wave this year?

As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 06:47:41 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yes (80.0%). The market has $1.8M in volume and closes on Mon, 01 Feb 2027.

Updated: Tue, 20 Oct 2026 06:47:41 UTC

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Market details

• Venue: Kalshi
• Volume: $1.8M
• Liquidity: $1.8M
• Closes: Mon, 01 Feb 2027

Resolution rules

If ALL of the following occur: Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms, then the market resolves to Yes. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: "Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House?" uses SEATSCONGRESS, "Will Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate?" uses SEATSCONGRESS. For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified). All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period. This market will resolve based on the composition of the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate on February 1, 2027. Individuals caucusing with either party will be included with them (e.g. an Independent who caucuses with a party, like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders who caucuses with the Democrats, would be counted as a Democrat).

Sources

• Source: Kalshi market
• Source: Polymarket market

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