Closest Senate race this year?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 06:23:48 UTC, Kalshi traders price Iowa (14.0%), Texas (14.0%), Kansas (13.0%). The market has $1.0M in volume and closes on Sun, 03 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| Texas | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| Kansas | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| Maine | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| Michigan | 8.3% | 8.3¢ | 91.7¢ |
| Ohio | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| Nebraska | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Alaska | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| South Carolina | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Minnesota | 3.8% | 3.8¢ | 96.2¢ |
| Montana | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| New Hampshire | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Florida | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Mississippi | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| North Carolina | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $1.0M
- Liquidity: $1.0M
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Iowa:
If Iowa has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States Senate elections as of Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Margin of victory is calculated as the absolute percentage point difference between first and second place finishers. For two-candidate races, this is winner's percentage minus runner-up's percentage. For multi-candidate races, only the gap between first and second counts. For ranked choice/instant runoff elections, the margin from the final round is used. If official results aren't available by the deadline but at least 95% of expected vote is counted, preliminary results are used. In case of identical margins (tied to the hundredth of a percentage point), tied options split the payout equally. Postponed elections or those without sufficient results by the deadline resolve to No.
Sources
Related markets
- How many Senate seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
- How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?
- Maine-Texas Senate Combo
- Maine Senate Exact Outcome
- Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Blue wave this year?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.