Will Democrats hold at least 46 Senate seats after the 2026 election?
As of Tue, 03 Nov 2026 00:38:55 UTC, Kalshi traders price At least 46 (98.0%), At least 48 (95.0%), At least 49 (89.0%). The market has $25K in volume and closes on Mon, 01 Feb 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| At least 46 | 98.0% | 98.0¢ | 2.0¢ |
| At least 48 | 95.0% | 95.0¢ | 5.0¢ |
| At least 49 | 89.0% | 89.0¢ | 11.0¢ |
| At least 50 | 84.0% | 84.0¢ | 16.0¢ |
| At least 51 | 76.0% | 76.0¢ | 24.0¢ |
| At least 52 | 73.0% | 73.0¢ | 27.0¢ |
| At least 53 | 60.0% | 60.0¢ | 40.0¢ |
| At least 54 | 42.0% | 42.0¢ | 58.0¢ |
| At least 55 | 29.0% | 29.0¢ | 71.0¢ |
| At least 56 | 16.0% | 16.0¢ | 84.0¢ |
| At least 57 | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| At least 58 | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $25K
- Liquidity: $23K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for At least 46:
If the Democratic Party holds at least 46 seats in the U.S. Senate at the end of the day the new Congress first convenes after the November 3, 2026, general election, then the market resolves to Yes. Independent and unaffiliated members who caucus with Democrats will be included. Every voting seat in the Senate counts, including any seat not on the 2026 ballot. Vacant and disputed seats count toward no party.
Sources
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