How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Directional)
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:57 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 214 (97.0%), Above 211 (95.0%), Above 217 (90.0%). The market has $22K in volume and closes on Mon, 01 Feb 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 214 | 97.0% | 97.0¢ | 3.0¢ |
| Above 211 | 95.0% | 95.0¢ | 5.0¢ |
| Above 217 | 90.0% | 90.0¢ | 10.0¢ |
| Above 220 | 90.0% | 90.0¢ | 10.0¢ |
| Above 223 | 89.0% | 89.0¢ | 11.0¢ |
| Above 226 | 86.0% | 86.0¢ | 14.0¢ |
| Above 229 | 78.0% | 78.0¢ | 22.0¢ |
| Above 232 | 71.0% | 71.0¢ | 29.0¢ |
| Above 235 | 64.0% | 64.0¢ | 36.0¢ |
| Above 238 | 53.0% | 53.0¢ | 47.0¢ |
| Above 241 | 35.0% | 35.0¢ | 65.0¢ |
| Above 244 | 27.0% | 27.0¢ | 73.0¢ |
| Above 247 | 21.0% | 21.0¢ | 79.0¢ |
| Above 250 | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
| Above 253 | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $22K
- Liquidity: $22K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 214:
If the Democratic party has above 214 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Individuals caucusing with the Democrats will be included.
Sources
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