When will xAI release Grok 5?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:57 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before 2027 (39.0%), Before December (19.0%), Before November (6.0%). The market has $124K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2027 | 39.0% | 39.0¢ | 61.0¢ |
| Before December | 19.0% | 19.0¢ | 81.0¢ |
| Before November | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Before October | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $124K
- Liquidity: $124K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before 2027:
If xAI releases Grok 5 before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.
Sources
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