Will Sébastien Bubeck leave OpenAI?
As of Thu, 22 Oct 2026 15:43:30 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yes (8.0%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Fri, 08 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $1K
- Liquidity: $1K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
If Sébastien Bubeck has either officially announced their intention to leave employment at OpenAI or has actually left employment at OpenAI after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. An "official announcement" means a statement by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the official body governing the office that the person will be departing from the office. Such announcements must be reported by at least one Source Agency to be considered official. The announcement must not specify they are leaving in more than a year from the statement, in which case the market does not resolve to Yes. "Leaving office" means the person no longer holds the office in any capacity, including but not limited to: resignation (effective), termination, removal, impeachment and removal, recall, or the expiration of their term without renewal. Temporary absences such as medical leave, suspension with possibility of return, or delegation of duties while retaining the office do NOT constitute leaving office. Forced departures (termination, impeachment and removal, etc.) satisfy the Payout Criterion even without a prior announcement. A change of team or job within OpenAI does NOT count as leaving employment at OpenAI.
Sources
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