Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 15:09:34 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yes (18.0%). The market has $415K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 18.0% | 18.0¢ | 82.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $415K
- Liquidity: $415K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
If the FDA approves any psychedelic substance for medical use for marketing before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Psychedelic drugs include: LSD, Psilocybin, DMT, Mescaline, MDMA, MDA, PCP, DXM, Ibogaine, Salvia divinorum, 2C family, and Ayahuasca. Important information: For purposes of this Contract: The listed substances are illustrative, not exhaustive. Approval of any other substance commonly recognized in scientific or FDA documentation as a psychedelic, hallucinogen, or entactogen (for example, psilocin, 5-MeO-DMT, methylone, or 2C-, DOx-, or NBOMe-family compounds) may also satisfy the Payout Criterion. "Approval for medical use" means an FDA approval letter for an NDA or BLA authorizing marketing of a drug or biologic for human medical use in the United States, where a listed (or otherwise qualifying) psychedelic substance is an active pharmaceutical ingredient of the approved product. Complete Response Letters, tentative approvals, Emergency Use Authorizations, expanded access or compassionate use authorizations, and approvals limited to export do not satisfy the Payout Criterion. Combination products. Approval of a combination drug product satisfies the Payout Criterion only if at least one active ingredient is a listed (or otherwise qualifying) psychedelic substance and that psychedelic active ingredient has not previously been approved by the FDA via NDA or BLA for any human medical indication. By way of example, an FDA approval of AXS-05 (a c…
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