Will an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess?
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 19:02:11 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before 2030 (68.0%), Before 2029 (61.0%), Before 2028 (40.0%). The market has $6K in volume and closes on Tue, 01 Jan 2030.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2030 | 68.0% | 68.0¢ | 32.0¢ |
| Before 2029 | 61.0% | 61.0¢ | 39.0¢ |
| Before 2028 | 40.0% | 40.0¢ | 60.0¢ |
| Before 2027 | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $6K
- Liquidity: $6K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before 2030:
If any of the Source Agencies report that an LLM has beaten a chess grandmaster in chess before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Only a game played after Issuance counts.
Sources
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