Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 15:34:26 UTC, Polymarket traders price ↑ 1540 (47.9%), ↑ 1550 (33.5%), ↑ 1600 (9.0%). The market has $101K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ 1540 | 47.9% | 47.9¢ | 52.1¢ |
| ↑ 1550 | 33.5% | 33.5¢ | 66.5¢ |
| ↑ 1600 | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| ↑ 1650 | 4.2% | 4.2¢ | 95.8¢ |
| ↑ 1700 | 3.9% | 3.9¢ | 96.1¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $101K
- Liquidity: $3K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources
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