Who will be the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet?
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 20:59:21 UTC, Kalshi traders price John Healey (14.0%), Miatta Fahnbulleh (9.0%), Douglas Alexander (8.0%). The market has $42K in volume and closes on Sat, 08 Jan 2028.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Healey | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| Miatta Fahnbulleh | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| Douglas Alexander | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| Wes Streeting | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| Anneliese Midgley | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| Alex Norris | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| Yvette Cooper | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| Louise Haigh | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| Pat McFadden | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| Shabana Mahmood | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Indeterminate | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Angela Smith | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Stephen Kinnock | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Angela Rayner | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| Angela Eagle | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $42K
- Liquidity: $42K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for John Healey:
If John Healey is the next to leave the Burnham Cabinet before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. A member leaves the Cabinet upon the qualifying announcement of their resignation, dismissal, removal, non-reappointment, or other formal cessation of Cabinet membership. A change of portfolio or position within the Cabinet alone does not count. If two or more members leave on the same calendar date and the Source Agencies do not establish a clear chronological order, the tied member markets settle according to the Contract's split-settlement provisions. If no eligible member leaves during the specified period, all member markets resolve to No. A temporary absence or leave where the member is expected to resume their Cabinet position does not count. Speculative or unconfirmed reports of a departure do not count. If the Prime Minister leaves office or the Cabinet is otherwise dissolved or wholly reconstituted before an individual member satisfies the Payout Criterion, all listed individual-member markets resolve to No.
Sources
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