Will Netanyahu announce his retirement from politics?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 13:09:57 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 1, 2027 (37.0%), Before Jul 1, 2027 (6.0%). The market has $1K in volume and closes on Thu, 01 Jul 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 37.0% | 37.0¢ | 63.0¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $1K
- Liquidity: $1K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 1, 2027:
If Benjamin Netanyahu has either officially announced their intention to leave all political office in Israel or has actually left all political office in Israel before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. An "official announcement" means a statement by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the official body governing the office that the person will be departing from the office. Such announcements must be reported by at least one Source Agency to be considered official. The announcement must not specify they are leaving in more than a year from the statement, in which case the market does not resolve to Yes. "Leaving office" means the person no longer holds the office in any capacity, including but not limited to: resignation (effective), termination, removal, impeachment and removal, recall, or the expiration of their term without renewal. Temporary absences such as medical leave, suspension with possibility of return, or delegation of duties while retaining the office do NOT constitute leaving office. Forced departures (termination, impeachment and removal, etc.) satisfy the Payout Criterion even without a prior announcement. "All political office in Israel" means every one of the following: Benjamin Netanyahu's seat in the Knesset, the office of Prime Minister and any other ministerial post, and the leadership of the Likud party. An announcement or departure covering only some of these does NOT count. An announcement that he will leave mo…
Sources
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