Will Netanyahu be arrested?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:00 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 1, 2027 (5.0%), Before Nov 1, 2026 (2.0%). The market has $119K in volume and closes on Sat, 01 Jan 2028.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $119K
- Liquidity: $119K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 1, 2027:
If Benjamin Netanyahu has been arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this Contract, "arrested" means: Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant Being formally booked or processed following detention The following scenarios would satisfy the Payout Criterion: Benjamin Netanyahu is handcuffed and taken to a police station Benjamin Netanyahu surrenders at a police station or courthouse with their attorney Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested in any country and this is reported by a Source Agency Benjamin Netanyahu is detained at an airport or border crossing and formally arrested The following scenarios would NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion: An arrest warrant being issued but not executed Benjamin Netanyahu being briefly detained but not arrested Benjamin Netanyahu being questioned or interviewed without arrest Benjamin Netanyahu being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring without physical custody Benjamin Netanyahu being named in an indictment without arrest Benjamin Netanyahu being arrested after Jan 1, 2027 Protective custody that is not an arrest
Sources
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