Will new tariffs become law?
As of Thu, 17 Sep 2026 20:22:15 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 1, 2027 (99.0%), Before Nov 1, 2026 (98.0%). The market has $45K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 98.0% | 98.0¢ | 2.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $45K
- Liquidity: $45K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 1, 2027:
If any legislation imposing new or increased tariffs has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The bill must pass the full chamber (not just committee) for House or Senate passage. For "become law" markets, the bill must be signed by the President or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to No. Joint resolutions are treated as bills. Treaties require two-thirds Senate approval for passage. The market resolves based on the first occurrence of the specified milestone.
Sources
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