Who will be the next Secretary General of NATO?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:02 UTC, Kalshi traders price Mette Frederiksen (32.0%), Kaja Kallas (17.0%), Keir Starmer (13.0%). The market has $8K in volume and closes on Thu, 08 Jan 2099.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mette Frederiksen | 32.0% | 32.0¢ | 68.0¢ |
| Kaja Kallas | 17.0% | 17.0¢ | 83.0¢ |
| Keir Starmer | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| Alexander Stubb | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| Klaus Iohannis | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Petr Pavel | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Ben Wallace | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Ursula von der Leyen | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $8K
- Liquidity: $8K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Mette Frederiksen:
If Mette Frederiksen formally holds the position of Secretary General of NATO, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes. For the purposes of this Contract, "formally holds Secretary General of NATO" means that an individual, company, or group has assumed Secretary General of NATO in an official capacity—whether by appointment, election, succession, confirmation, designation, or acting/interim assignment—and has performed or is recognized to perform the duties or responsibilities of that role for any length of time after Issuance.
Sources
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