When will the Hodge Conjecture be resolved?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:57 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before 2032 (70.0%), Before 2031 (61.0%), Before 2030 (54.0%). The market has $3K in volume and closes on Wed, 07 Jan 2032.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2032 | 70.0% | 70.0¢ | 30.0¢ |
| Before 2031 | 61.0% | 61.0¢ | 39.0¢ |
| Before 2030 | 54.0% | 54.0¢ | 46.0¢ |
| Before 2029 | 40.0% | 40.0¢ | 60.0¢ |
| Before 2028 | 20.0% | 20.0¢ | 80.0¢ |
| Before 2027 | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $3K
- Liquidity: $3K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before 2032:
If Hodge Conjecture in its official Clay Mathematics Institute formulation is resolved before Jan 1, 2032 under the Payout Criterion and that resolution has not been retracted, withdrawn, repudiated, or rescinded prior to the Expiration time, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this Contract, Hodge Conjecture in its official Clay Mathematics Institute formulation is considered resolved if at least one of the following occurs and has not been retracted, withdrawn, repudiated, or rescinded prior to the Expiration time: A peer-reviewed article presenting a complete proof, a complete disproof, or a counterexample establishing the falsity of the conjecture, in the conjecture's original form as specified by the Exchange at Issuance, has been published in one or more Source Agency peer-reviewed journals. A recognized authoritative body for the academic field of the conjecture, including but not limited to Clay Mathematics Institute, the American Mathematical Society, the International Mathematical Union, a national academy of sciences, the Nobel Foundation, or an equivalent governing or recognition body for the relevant academic field, has officially recognized in a written communication that the conjecture, in its original form as specified by the Exchange at Issuance, has been resolved by reference to a specific written work. At least two Source Agencies have published reporting describing the conjecture, in its original form as specified by the Exchange at Issua…
Sources
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