Will Trump reduce the deficit before 2027?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 09:34:16 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (7.2%). The market has $4K in volume and closes on Mon, 01 Mar 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7.2% | 7.2¢ | 92.8¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $4K
- Liquidity: $448
- Closes:
Resolution rules
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
Sources
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