Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba?
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 19:02:13 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 1, 2027 (14.0%), Before Aug 1, 2026 (0.0%). The market has $200K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| Before Aug 1, 2026 | 0.0% | 0.0¢ | 100.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $200K
- Liquidity: $200K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 1, 2027:
If the United States announces a new free trade agreement, multilateral trade agreement, trade framework, or economic cooperation arrangement with Cuba before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Preliminary agreements, frameworks, or agreements in principle do count as long as they are presented as a new trade-related agreement. Cuba must also acknowledge the agreement. A mere declaration of intent to start negotiations or "explore a trade deal" is not sufficient. If the U.S. and Cuba are part of a multilateral trade agreement announced within the timeframe, it is included.
Sources
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