Will the UK reverse the Diego Garcia sovereignty transfer?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:00 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 1, 2028 (44.0%), Before Aug 1, 2027 (36.0%), Before Apr 1, 2027 (26.0%). The market has $5K in volume and closes on Sat, 08 Jan 2028.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 44.0% | 44.0¢ | 56.0¢ |
| Before Aug 1, 2027 | 36.0% | 36.0¢ | 64.0¢ |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 26.0% | 26.0¢ | 74.0¢ |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $5K
- Liquidity: $5K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 1, 2028:
If the UK agrees to or announces a decision not to transfer sovereignty over Diego Garcia to Mauritius before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. A decision qualifies if the UK government announces that it will not transfer sovereignty over Diego Garcia to Mauritius, including by abandoning the May 22, 2025 UK-Mauritius treaty or agreeing to a replacement arrangement under which the UK retains sovereignty over Diego Garcia. Abandoning, withdrawing from, or superseding that treaty qualifies only if the UK does not, at the same time, agree to, announce, or state its intention to pursue another arrangement under which Mauritius would become sovereign over Diego Garcia. Changes to payments, the duration or terms of the UK's use of Diego Garcia, security provisions, implementation dates, or other treaty provisions do not qualify if Mauritius would still become sovereign over Diego Garcia. An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following: Formal signing of treaties Parliamentary approval with binding effect Official ratification Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Official statements to international bodies Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify. The following do NOT qualify: Preliminary discussions Conditional…
Sources
Related markets
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Which leaders will leave office this year?
- Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?
- Who will officially lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?
- Nobel Peace Prize winner
- Miguel Díaz-Canel departure announced?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.