Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:02 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 1, 2028 (58.0%), Before Jan 1, 2027 (15.0%). The market has $15K in volume and closes on Sat, 01 Jan 2028.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 58.0% | 58.0¢ | 42.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $15K
- Liquidity: $15K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 1, 2028:
If Papua New Guinea has agreed to or announced the ratification of Bougainville's independence before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves formal signing of treaties, parliamentary approval with binding effect, official ratification, formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority, official statements by authorized ministers, official press releases, formal declarations during government proceedings, or official statements to international bodies. Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory qualify. Preliminary discussions, conditional agreements contingent on circumstances, opposition party statements, leaked documents, think-tank recommendations, general aspirations without specific commitment, draft legislation without approval, and regional actions (unless specified) do NOT qualify. Retraction of previously announced commitments also does not satisfy the criterion.
Sources
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