Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:57 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 1, 2028 (64.0%), Before Jan 1, 2027 (22.0%). The market has $59K in volume and closes on Sat, 08 Jan 2028.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 64.0% | 64.0¢ | 36.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 22.0% | 22.0¢ | 78.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $59K
- Liquidity: $59K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 1, 2028:
If OpenAI announces a complete solution developed by OpenAI or researchers collaborating directly with OpenAI on that solution to one of the five qualifying Millennium Prize Problems (Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer, Hodge, P versus NP, Riemann, or Yang-Mills), excluding the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem and the Poincare conjecture before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. The qualifying announcement must expressly state that OpenAI developed or co-developed the solution, or expressly identify outside researchers as having collaborated with OpenAI on developing that solution. The qualifying problems are the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, Hodge Conjecture, P versus NP, Riemann Hypothesis, and Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem. The Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem and the Poincare conjecture do NOT count. Work by an independent ChatGPT user does NOT count, even if OpenAI publicizes it. Providing model access or research credits alone is not direct collaboration on the solution. Partial results, numerical evidence, or formalization of a previously known solution do NOT count as a complete solution. Clay acceptance, peer review, and a prize award are not required.
Sources
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